Overview
The FGE Global Crude Trade Study is FGE’s comprehensive outlook for the global crude trade out to 2030, assessing how the world’s crude slate will change over the coming years.
The FGE Global Crude Trade Study examines the outlook for global crude trade out to 2030, taking a deep dive into crude supply, crude quality, trade flow changes, infrastructure developments, dirty tanker fleet dynamics and crude price differentials.
By looking at global crude supply and demand in detail, the report highlights key shifts in crude trade dynamics such as North America returning to being a net crude exporter, the impact on east/west crude balances should sanctions on Russia be lifted or the likely shift in global crude slates given upstream production growth trends.
Incremental crude production growth will continue to come from the Atlantic Basin (mainly the Americas) while incremental demand growth will come from Asia - with seaborne crude trade needing to increase.
As crude supply in emerging exporting countries reaches new highs, export infrastructure will need to be developed, improved and expanded.
In the Global Crude Trade Study, we outline the key infrastructure developments taking place and the impact they will have on crude trade and price differentials.
As global crude trade grows, so too will tonne mile demand. However, with only a limited number of new ships on order and around 15% of global crude trade now taking place under sanctions on the “dark fleet”, utilisation of the conventional fleet will rise. The report provides an outlook for crude tankers covering fleet statistics, seaborne trade, voyage distance and tonne mile demand.
The FGE Global Crude Trade Study addresses these issues, along with providing a comprehensive data set of global crude supply and trade. The data set includes production forecasts for over 400 crude grades by API and Sulphur out to 2040, as well as looking at annual crude balances and trade by and between regions out to 2030. The data package also provides a country breakdowns of production costs and future projects.