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The Naphtha Outlook 2022


FGE’s detailed assessment of the long-term outlook for naphtha

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Overview

FGE’s detailed assessment of the long-term outlook for naphtha strikes at the heart of the ever-shifting tectonic plates in oil and gas markets going forward – i.e. the pivot from transportation fuels into petrochemicals as part of the Energy Transition. In this new study, we forecast the trends that will redefine naphtha supply and demand globally out to 2040.

The rest of the 2020s will see radical shifts in the Atlantic Basin products trade. The start-up of the huge grassroots Dangote refinery in Nigeria will eliminate much of West Africa’s gasoline deficit, while rising electric vehicle penetration and greater fuel efficiency will curb transportation fuel growth in the West.

The dynamics of the merchant naphtha trade and the drivers behind pricing are highly complex. Interactions with competing products, such as gasoline and LPG, as well as the growing East/West trade, underpin naphtha’s market fundamentals.

We leverage FGE’s market-leading refining and NGLs expertise to bridge both worlds in this report. The 2022 Outlook takes a bottom-up approach to analysing competition both in the gasoline barrel and within the petrochemical complex, determining global naphtha supply and demand by grade and by country.

The result is a forward-looking and granular global supply/ demand and trade balance model. It provides valuable information for the physical market (e.g. new supplies by terminal, new projects, and feed flexibility). Meanwhile, for long-term planning teams our outlook for the future of naphtha helps to guide them through the shifts impacting the heart of the barrel.

Key Areas Addressed in this Study

  • Global supply, demand, import and export projections to 2040 for both West and East of Suez. Projections are grouped by region, country, port, and by grade.
  • Changing global shipping trade flows of naphtha, with divergent dynamics for naphtha/gasoline in the East and West.
  • Trends in olefins and NGL feedstocks and the evolution of naphtha’s role as a cracker feedstock going forward.
  • Trends in refinery capacity, configurations and integrations (i.e. integration downstream with gasoline/petrochemicals), and impacts on the naphtha fraction.
  • Potential growth in NGL naphtha supply associated with US shale as well as natural gas/LNG and its impact on the naphtha trade.
  • Trends in aromatics, with due consideration of the rapid growth of PX capacity in China, and how this would impact naphtha/gasoline dynamics.

Scope of Coverage

  • Structure
    • Part I: Introduction
    • Part II: Petrochemical Trends
    • Part III: Refining & Gasoline Trends
    • Part IV: East of Suez
    • Part V: West of Suez
  • Deliverables
    • PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout)
    • Presentation can be arranged under terms to be mutually agreed.
    • Naphtha specifications
    • Supporting Excel data file which includes:
      • Supply and Demand Balances by Region, Country and Naphtha Grade
      • Cracker Database
      • Aromatics (PX) Database
      • Naphtha Specifications 
    • Three hours of consultation with FGE’s NGL team available per year for telephone/face-to-face/online discussions and/or email enquiries. 

     

 

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