Overview
The Ethane Forecast 2025 is FGE’s detailed assessment of the mid-to-long-term operating environment for the global ethane trade. In this recently updated study, we forecast ethane demand and review the changing global supply dynamics of ethane to identify the key factors at play in the rapidly evolving ethane market.
The global seaborne ethane trade is dominated by the US, which contributes to over 99% of seaborne supplies. The US started exporting ethane back in 2016, mainly to coastal steam crackers in Northwest Europe that have the flexibility to process ethane. Since 2017, US ethane has ventured further to Reliance’s crackers in India and Braskem Idesa’s crackers in Mexico. From 2019, US ethane started flowing to steam cracker complexes in China, mainly operated by SP Chemicals and Satellite Chemical. Satellite Chemical takes the largest volume of US ethane for a single petrochemical complex, with a 150 kb/d long-term ethane supply contract signed with US midstream company Energy Transfer Partners. As a result, seaborne ethane exports from the US have grown from under 20 kb/d in 2016 to 425 kb/d as of 2024.
This growth is expected to continue, with US export volumes almost tripling to 1.2 mmb/d by the end of this decade, lead by growth in petrochemical facilities, largely in Asia, and with new end-users being added to the mix. Therefore, with the product gaining considerable traction and interest within the petrochemical sector, it is imperative for market players to gain an understanding of the long-run sustainability of the seaborne ethane supplies, in order to position themselves strategically when it comes to procurement of petrochemical feedstocks.
FGE NexantECA’s Ethane Forecast is well placed to help you navigate this niche market. Our expertise in the NGLs sector allows us to deliver detailed insights into how the global ethane trade will develop in the coming decades. To do this, we model long-run projections on US NGL supply growth, which is predicated largely on the growth of supply of associated shale gas – and to a lesser degree non-associated shale gas. On the flip side, demand for seaborne ethane is modelled through an understanding of ethane-fed steam cracker projects in the pipeline. The study also weighs the potential around ethane exports out of other regions such as the Middle East. In this year’s edition of the report, we have outlined three key scenarios to highlight potential upside risks to ethane prices, to help you understand how a tightening market could affect your business.
The deliverables of the report include a country-by-country outlook on ethane cracking capacity – including countries that utilize captive supplies of ethane. Beyond country-by-country fundamentals and trade, developments on the shipping front are also covered in detail. The excel datafile that comes alongside the report houses the regional and country-by-country breakdown of supply, demand and trade. The datafile also houses a VLEC shipping list (current list and orderbook) as well as a global ethane-focused steam cracker database.
For clients also interested in a short-term outlook for the ethane markets, our Ethane Forecast can be complemented with the Ethane Monthly service – which highlights short to medium term developments in global ethane trade flows, as well as US supply and demand balances. This report is bolstered by highlights and announcement around long term developments, and comes with a datafile highlighting country-by-country balances (for countries involved in the seaborne ethane trade), as well as key petrochemical outages and outlooks on key price spreads.