Overview
Unlock clear, confident decision-making with the Strategic Outlook for Energy 2025. Our in-depth analysis offers a practical, data-backed perspective on the evolving energy landscape, exploring oil supply and demand, alternative fuels, and emerging technologies through to 2050.
Appendix List of Figures
The energy sector is facing unprecedented uncertainty. Policy backtracking, affordability concerns, and the complex integration of new technologies are raising big questions for market participants. Is the world slowing down on green initiatives? Are alternative fuels and electric vehicles living up to the hype? And how will shifting regulations and consumer habits shape future demand?
Navigating Today’s Energy Market Challenges with FGE NexantECA’s Strategic Outlook
1. Policy Reversals and Realistic Forecasting
Recent rollbacks in green policies have cast doubt on the momentum behind alternative energy technologies. While some forecasters have slashed their projections, FGE NexantECA’s Strategic Outlook delivers a grounded, data-driven view. Our 2024 EV market forecast, for instance, reflects only a marginal adjustment from last year—demonstrating our commitment to realistic, not reactionary, analysis. This contrasts sharply with the significant revisions made by others, providing you with a more stable foundation for strategic planning.
2. Beyond the Headlines: Understanding True Demand
Many market discussions focus narrowly on headline oil demand, missing the rapid rise of non-crude oil-based products and alternative fuels. Our sector-by-sector analysis uncovers where opportunities and risks truly lie—helping you see beyond the surface. For example, we project that demand for non-crude oil-based products will jump from 15 mmb/d in 2023 to 23 mmb/d by 2050, with strong growth in ethane and biofuels led by Asia, the Middle East, and North America.
3. Electric Vehicles and Road Fuel Demand
Despite concerns about slowing EV sales, FGE NexantECA’s research shows global gasoline demand remains resilient in the medium term. Our forecast sees growth through 2030 before plateauing, while also quantifying the long-term impact of EV adoption—over 10 mmb/d of oil demand will be displaced by electric vehicles by 2050. This balanced perspective helps you prepare for both near-term realities and long-term shifts.
4. Diesel Demand: Approaching a Plateau
While much of the conversation centers on gasoline and electric vehicles, the stagnation of global diesel demand is a critical trend that often goes under the radar. Factors such as the decoupling of US trucking activity from GDP growth, slower economic expansion, and the adoption of alternative fuels (like LNG and electric vehicles in China), as well as a structural decline in the heating fuel market, all point to a peak in global diesel demand. FGE NexantECA projects that total gasoil/diesel demand will stagnate at just under 29 mmb/d in the medium term, with crude oil-based diesel demand set to decrease. This insight helps market participants anticipate shifts and adapt their strategies accordingly.
5. Petrochemical Growth and the Recycling Challenge
Petrochemicals are emerging as a major driver of demand growth, but the outlook is clouded by uncertainty—particularly around plastics recycling. While global plastics demand is expected to nearly double by 2050, the actual impact on petrochemical feedstock demand will depend largely on the success of ambitious recycling initiatives. Currently, only about 8% of global plastic use is recycled, mostly through mechanical means. Chemical recycling remains in its infancy, with high costs and technical hurdles. FGE NexantECA provides nuanced analysis on how evolving recycling policies and technologies may shape the sector, helping you understand both the risks and opportunities ahead.
6. Aviation and Shipping: Decarbonisation in Focus
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and biofuels are set to play a pivotal role in decarbonizing transport. Our Strategic Outlook details the growth trajectory for SAF—projecting it will account for 19% of jet fuel use by 2050—and highlights the challenges of scaling up production. In shipping, we break down the complex landscape of alternative fuels and regulatory pressures, helping you identify which solutions—like green ammonia and methanol—are likely to gain traction.
7. Crude Slate and Upstream Shifts
Shifting supply dynamics are reshaping the global crude slate. FGE NexantECA’s comprehensive assessment helps you anticipate how changes in US tight oil, South American medium grades, and Canadian heavy output will affect trading and investment strategies.
8. OPEC+ and Market Management
OPEC+’s proactive market interventions have stabilized prices, but rising production costs and evolving hedging behaviors add further complexity. Our Strategic Outlook provides the context you need to understand these dynamics and adjust your approach accordingly.
In a market clouded by uncertainty, FGE NexantECA’s Strategic Outlook for Energy cuts through the noise
The Strategic Outlook for Energy 2025 is your essential guide to navigating these challenges. Our rigorous, realistic analysis helps you see past hype and headline risks—empowering you to make informed decisions, spot emerging opportunities, and future-proof your strategy in an ever-evolving energy landscape.
Here’s how our analysis and insights empower your business:
Independent, Realistic Forecasts
- A balanced, impartial view of long-term energy demand, supply, and technology trends.
- Scenario analysis that reflects the realities of today’s policy and market landscape.
Actionable Insights for Every Stakeholder
- Oil & Gas Companies: Identify growth markets, anticipate demand shifts, and optimise portfolios
- Traders & Financial Institutions: Stay ahead of market-moving trends and manage risk with confidence
- Government & Policymakers: Base decisions on robust, data-driven analysis
Deep-Dive Forecasts and Scenarios
- Long-term projections for demand, supply, and alternative fuels by region and sector, out to 2050
- Detailed analysis of key uncertainties: policy, technology, and regulation
Expert Support for Your Business
- Access all data in user-friendly formats
- Schedule a consultation with our senior analysts to discuss the findings and their implications for your business