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East of Suez Oil Databooks


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Overview

The East of Suez Oil Databooks provide a deep-dive analysis of key events and trends that impact the Asian and Middle Eastern oil markets, focusing on both medium- and long-term trends that shape the refining landscape and product trade.

COVID-19 has taken a toll on the crude oil and product markets. While the oil market must react swiftly to the challenges presented in the near term, it also needs to look ahead to a post-COVID-19 world. The Databooks take a close look at opportunities that lie ahead in the East of Suez upstream and downstream sectors for the years to come.

The Asia-Pacific region remains the critical driver of global demand growth. Although demand was dealt a huge blow in early 2020, the region has since largely recovered and petroleum consumption in several Asian countries is close to pre-pandemic levels.

While there is a perception that the pandemic has shifted the long-term demand trajectory downwards, we believe that demand will continue on its strong growth path when we fully emerge from the crisis. We provide analyses on countries and products that will lead the demand expansion. As part of this assessment, we also look at potential threats to demand, including the expansion of the EV fleet in key demand centers, growing biofuel and alternative energy use, as well as increasing talks on carbon neutrality. 

Reduced demand and a collapse in margins have resulted in the permanent shutdown of a number of refineries globally. The difficulties have struck Asia hard as well, prompting announcements of refinery closures in Australia and the Philippines. The story does not necessarily end here. With Asian refiners still reeling from COVID-19, some other less complex/older refineries could be shuttered. 

In these uncertain times, the long-term refining future may appear quite bearish. Refining will undeniably remain challenged over the next year or so. Nonetheless, we believe there is light at the end of the tunnel if some refiners act now and decisively, and close some capacity. 

While China and India continue to expand their refining capacities in the next 3-4 years, very few new refining additions will materialize beyond the mid-2020s in Asia. Even in the Middle East, only a handful of refineries that are under construction will come onstream in the upcoming years. These shifts will allow for a strong recovery in margins before global demand peaks. 

The Asia Pacific will remain net short of products such as LPG, naphtha and fuel oil, and needs to continue importing from other regions. In fact, the region will become a net importer of gasoline around mid-2020. Overall, Asia will attract arbitrage barrels and increasingly look to faraway regions to plug its deficit. The Databooks shed light on the changes in product trade expected over the long term. 

Key Features of This Report:

  • How will product demand evolve over the next 20+ years?
  • Which countries and which products will lead demand growth?
  • Who is building/expanding refineries and why?
  • What are the most interesting developments/opportunities for refiners as they emerge from the COVID-19 crisis?
  • How will product trade flows develop?
  • Has the pandemic shifted the long-term demand trajectory as the market perceives?
  • Any surprises ahead? What is happening on the EV front?
  • Have priorities shifted in the downstream industry?
  • Highlights of key developments of regional drivers.
  • What will happen to refining margins over the next 5-10 years?

Scope of Coverage

  • Countries
    • Asia Pacific: Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Zealand, North Korea Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam
    • Middle East: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Yemen
  • Products
    • Condensate
    • Crude Oil
    • LPG
    • Fuel Oil
    • Naphtha
    • Gasoline
    • Jet Fuel
    • Kerosene
    • Gasoil
  • Deliverables
    • PDF copy of the report (in PowerPoint format)
    • FGE consultants will be available to discuss the findings of the report either by telephone/WebEx or similar facilities.
    • Extensive supplementary excel data sets (see website for full list of available data sets).

This Service Will Add Value To

  • Downstream Operators Needing a perspective on the extent to which the emerging pressures on their business emanate from local or international sources.
  • Investors Looking for input in assessing their portfolio strategies.
  • Crude Oil Producers Looking for changing trends in crude oil demand, prices, and quality considerations.
  • Integrated Companies Seeking an outside perspective on the likely future economic operating environment of the sector.
  • Product Traders Trying to identify emerging underlying shifts in trade flows.
  • Shipping Operators Conducting analysis of potential tanker demand, also reviewing the overall implications of the new IMO bunker regulations.

 

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