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The Outlook for Oil - A Guide for Strategic Planning


The annual Outlook for Oil is FGE’s core analytical block for its perspectives on future developments in oil demand, supply and prices to 2040.

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Overview

The annual Strategic Oil Market Outlook is FGE’s core analytical block for its perspectives on future developments in oil demand, supply and prices to 2040. The methodology continues to be based around an internally consistent, bottom-up forecast of regional demand by product and sector, crude oil production by country, and an interaction with oil prices through to 2040.

FGE’s annual report identifies the key sensitivities and risk factors inherent in the long-term outlook for global oil markets.

This study provides and in-depth look at:

  • OPEC/non-OPEC production outlook and analysis;
  • Crude oil production costs by region and resource type;
  • Detailed demand outlook by 7 products, 9 end-sectors and 8 regions;
  • Resulting oil market balance and price forecast.

Additional Sub-sets

FGE’s Strategic Outlook for Oil is available as a standalone study (incl. overall supply by country/demand by sector and region/market balance and price outlook). In addition, this study can be purchased alongside one, or several, of our latest sub-sets (discounts available for grouped purchases); which explore in more detail the road transport and electric vehicle outlook, the tight oil product cost outlook, and the outlook for bunker fuel in the wake of IMO 2020:

Key Questions Addressed in this Study

  • Has the “call on OPEC crude” peaked?
  • What will the global crude slate look like come 2020 with the impact of the IMO bunker fuel spec change?
  • Are recent tight oil productivity gains sustainable?
  • West Africa OPEC losing its foot-hold to non-OPEC alternatives
  • What are the sensitivities around and key drivers of oil demand in the future?
  • What is the potential loss in petrochemical oil demand from plastics recycling and bans?
  • After IMO2020 comes IMO2050: Shipping industry’s struggle to go carbon-free
  • How are climate change policies going to shape oil consumption and industry?
  • How will changing mobility, stricter fuel economy standards and electrification shape the future for road transport fuels?

Scope of Coverage

  • Products
    • Crude Oil
    • LPG
    • Jet/Kerosene
    • Fuel Oil
    • Naphtha
    • Gasoil/Diesel
    • Gasoline
  • Sectors
    • Power
    • Industry
    • Residential and Commercial
    • Own Use
    • Other
    • Petrochemical
    • Transport
    • Agriculture
    • Marine bunkers
  • Deliverables
    • PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout).
    • Extensive supplementary excel data sets.
    • An interactive session with FGE consultants, either in FGE’s London office or via WebEx/video conferencing facilities.
    • A PowerPoint Executive Presentation Pack, with key charts and conclusions.

This Study will Add Value to

  • Major Oil Companies Who need an outside, independent assessment of market developments to compare with their own, internal forecasts.
  • National Oil Companies Potential developments in crude oil prices are a critical element in planning and the particular approach to price forecasting in this report will provide new perspectives on price formation and potential trends in the future.
  • Other Oil and Service Companies Any company operating in the sector should benefit from an internally consistent and detailed assessment of potential developments in the market as an alternative to reliance on forecasts from government or international organizations.
  • International/Governmental Organization Who need an independent, non-political perspective on the international oil market and an understanding of key elements likely to drive future oil prices.
  • Independent Refiners Demand-side developments outside their own operating region can have significant implications for refiners’ operating environment and the detailed supply-side projections could highlight potential new sources of supply.
  • Oil Shipping Companies The report provides a detailed framework covering the key elements driving their business in the long term.
  • Financial Institutions and Investment Funds Whether investing or trading, this report will provide a comprehensive basis for assessing risks, particularly in the near/mid-term, as well as delivering a flexible and detailed database of future demand and supply parameters.

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