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28th Middle East Petroleum Insiders (MPI) 2022


Event Overview

In-Person Briefing - 22-23 January, 2022

FGE is delighted to announce that our highly valued 28th Middle East Petroleum Insiders (MPI) Briefing will be taking place in Bahrain early next year. The global COVID-19 pandemic has meant a gap of almost 20 months since we were last able to host an in-person briefing, so we are thrilled to be scheduling dates for our next face-to-face events.

FGE's 15th Middle East Gas Insiders (MGI) Briefing 2022 will be taking place on 26-27 January, 2022. Please click here for further details.

More than 18 months on from the first COVID-19 lockdowns new COVID variants and renewed lockdowns and movement restrictions are keeping the global oil demand growth recovery in check. Partly because of this, OPEC+ faces challenges maintaining its recent agreement to increase production into 2022, contributing to a significant amount of market uncertainty on the likely trajectory of inventories and prices over the next 6-12 months.

Next year's in-person event, the first since February 2020, will focus on the new set of post-pandemic dynamics in the global oil market; it will assess OPEC+'s ongoing plans to manage price/supply; and will use more than a year of data to analyse how government policies and industry responses will impact supply and demand in the future.

Both the upstream and downstream will be covered at the Briefing, providing detailed regional perspectives on production, demand, refining capacity and utilization, with a focus on implications for the Middle East's role in the rapidly changing international products trade landscape.

Among the questions to be addressed at the 28th Middle East Petroleum Insiders (MPI) Briefing will be:

  • What is the outlook for the Middle East’s upstream and downstream sectors?
  • Will planned Middle Eastern  refinery investments in overseas demand centres survive the COVID-19-related storm?
  • How will the Middle East’s crude and products exports fare in this new environment?
  • What is the outlook for Chinese crude imports and products exports?
  • When will unsanctioned Iranian crude exports return to the market, and at what level?
  • How will the push for carbon neutrality affect the oil industry?
  • For the full agenda please download our brochure

 

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This briefing will be relevant for people working in:

  • Corporate/strategic planning and government relations
  • Projects, operations and resources
  • New ventures/markets, commercial, and business development
  • Trading, shipping and chartering
  • Marketers and business development managers
  • Contracts and legal managers
  • Research, economics and market analysis
  • Crude, feedstocks, fuel, petrochemicals, 
  • Negotiations and investments
  • Investment strategy
  • Economists, policy makers, corporate planners and analysts
  • Marketing and Business Development Managers 

Event Agenda

Session 1

Key Issues Confronting the Global Oil & Gas Markets

Dr. Fesharaki shares his views on the key issues confronting the global oil and gas business.

Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman, FGE

Session 2

Oil Market Outlook in a Nutshell

  • Hot Topic: Oil demand is recovering from the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and the supply side has come to the fore. How much supply can OPEC+ really add and keep the market in balance?
  • Global Oil Demand: What impact will COVID-19 have on near-term oil demand? How will global oil demand recover?
  • Global Oil Supply: Will OPEC+ group’s supply policy achieve its aims? How responsive is non-OPEC supply to price? When might Iran, Libya, and Venezuela re-emerge in the market?
  • Price Parameters: In this increasingly uncertain world, what is the potential path for oil prices?
  • Long Term: Does the 2020 demand shock have long-term implications for peak oil demand? When will OPEC and its allies regain market ascendancy?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 3

Roundtable on Critical Factors Driving Oil Markets

  • Has COVID-19 really changed everything? Has it changed the prospects of electric vehicles? How about refinery/petrochemicals projects? Will companies/governments change energy strategies? Any other wildcards to consider?
  • Although the volumes are still small, alternative fuels are all the rage. How can we separate the reality from the hype? How will oil markets interact with new fuels?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 4

Middle East Refining Landscape

  • Latest view on refining projects under construction/planned.
  • How will the latest developments in the global oil market impact plans for new greenfield, integrated refining projects?
  • Capacity and product exports growth: heading east or west?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 5

Middle East Crude & Products Trade

  • What are the prospects for the region’s upstream in terms of crude supply, given capacity expansion plans by most countries, despite a not-so-great outlook for the call on OPEC?
  • Outlook for Middle East oil demand: are low oil prices, subsidy policy changes, and COVID-19 disruptions shifting trends?
  • How are the region’s product balances likely to affect the region’s product trade outlook within its traditional markets?
  • An update on Iran’s latest situation, with particular focus on the impact of US sanctions and policies set by the new government.

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 6

Insight on Asia: Major Changes and Challenges

  • COVID-19 wreaked havoc across the Asian market. When will demand recover to pre-pandemic levels?
  • Has the pandemic shifted the long-term demand trajectory?
  • Which countries and which products will lead demand growth? Any surprises ahead? What is happening on the EV front?
  • Who is building/expanding refineries and why?
  • What are the most interesting developments/opportunities for refiners as they emerge from the COVID-19 crisis?
  • Regional drivers—highlights of key developments.

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 7

Deep Dive into Asia—Key Country Developments

    • China Brief
      • Post-COVID-19 demand rebound meets carbon neutrality ambitions. Where is China’s oil demand heading? Is the era of electric vehicles (EVs) dawning soon?
      • Crude imports fell in 2021. Is this due to a slowdown in stockpiling? Can we expect big shifts in refiners’ crude diet?
      • Has the golden age for independent refiners come to an end? Will the government’s change in strategies cast a long shadow on the domestic refining scene and product exports?
      • China’s growing bunker business squeezes regional players’ market share—how far can it go?
    • Japan Brief
      • COVID-19 accelerates demand decline and pressures refinery runs. How will the shift in dynamics affect refiners’ future strategies and product trade?
      • Will there be more refinery consolidation and closures in the downstream sector? Refinery consolidation is contributing to profit improvements, but what’s next?
    • India Brief
      • India’s oil demand recovery remains a mixed bag across the barrel. Is the rosy long-term demand story still alive?
      • NOCs will bring two small greenfield refinery projects online post-2025. Will this be sufficient for India’s demand growth?
      • With massive cost escalation, will the West Coast refinery project ever come to fruition? What are the constraints for mega refinery plans?
      • Private refiners view the refining business differently and are pondering a sharp turn towards petrochemicals. Will India turn into a net importer of oil products?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 8

West of Suez Refining & Products Trade: Implications for the Middle East

  • How did West of Suez markets respond to COVID-19 and what to expect in terms of product balances and refinery operations?
  • The status of refinery investment? How much capacity is expected to close and what is the prospect for survivors?
  • How will crude and product trade flows develop?
  • How will ME refiners be impacted by changes in the Atlantic Basin and the Asia Pacific?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 9

Middle East: The Outlook for LPG and Condensate

  • Uneven recovery from COVID-19 likely to see a patchy return for LPG demand in the short term. What to expect in long term with solid petrochemical LPG demand growth outweighing waning consumption in NEA?
  • What should Asian buyers plan for NGL procurement with tapering US NGL supplies in the next 3-4 years, when supplies from AG, Russia & Canada exceed those from the US?
  • When to expect Iran’s unleashed NGL growth to hit the market and what are the implications of Iranian SPC coming back to the market?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 10

Challenges and Opportunities

  • Where are the opportunities and who are the winners/losers?
  • What are the key sensitivities and foreseeable surprises?

Speaker: T.B.C.

The organizers reserve the right to alter the content and timings of the agenda.

Speakers

Fereidun -Fesharaki -web
Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki

Chairman,
FGE


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Jeff -Brown -web
Dr. Jeff Brown

President,
FGE


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Iman-Nasseri-Web
Dr. Iman Nasseri

Managing Director - Middle East,
FGE Dubai