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27th Middle East Petroleum Insiders (MPI) 2020


Event Overview

Online Virtual Briefing - 10-12 November, 2020

Due to the unprecendented COVID-19 situation, FGE will be holding its Middle East Petroleum Insiders (MPI) briefing as a virtual events this year, to be held via a videoconferencing platform of FGE's choosing. This briefing will continue to feature the same level of in-depth analysis and discussion as in previous years, but will now be taking place online over the course of three half-day sessions in November.

As the oil market was busy dealing with the challenge of IMO 2020 in 1Q 2020, COVID-19 struck, dealing a huge blow to oil demand. Oil-exporting countries in the Middle East had already been struggling to adapt to reduced oil revenues. The impact of COVID-19 and the massive imbalances it introduced to the market for the first time have only made the road bumpier for producers.

These issues will all be addressed at the 27th Middle East Petroleum Insiders Briefing which provides a unique, authoritative, and up-to-date perspective on the regional and global implications of the new low oil price world.

Last year’s event focused on the new set of dynamics in the global oil market in a low oil price environment; this year, we will be assessing how the ongoing OPEC+ plans to manage price/supply while the world is still dealing with COVID-19. Both upstream and downstream will be covered, providing detailed regional perspectives on production, oil demand, refining capacity and utilization, with the implications for the Middle East’s role in the rapidly-changing landscape of international products trade.

 

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This briefing will be relevant for people working in:

  • Corporate/strategic planning and government relations
  • Projects, operations and resources
  • New ventures/markets, commercial, and business development
  • Trading, shipping and chartering
  • Marketers and business development managers
  • Contracts and legal managers
  • Research, economics and market analysis
  • Crude, feedstocks, fuel, petrochemicals, 
  • Negotiations and investments
  • Investment strategy
  • Economists, policy makers, corporate planners and analysts
  • Marketing and Business Development Managers

Event Agenda

Session 1

Key Issues Confronting the Global Oil & Gas Markets

Dr. Fesharaki shares his views on the key issues confronting the global oil and gas business.

Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman, FGE

Session 2

Oil Market Outlook in a Nutshell

  • Hot Topic: Oil demand is recovering from the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns but any return to normal inventory levels needed to support prices also requires supply restraint.
  • Global Oil Demand: What is the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on future oil demand? How will global oil demand recover?
  • Global Oil Supply: Will OPEC+ group’s supply policy achieve its aims? How responsive is non-OPEC supply to price? What now for US shale oil supply? When might Iran, Libya and Venezuela re-emerge in the market?
  • Price Parameters: In the increasingly-uncertain world, what is the potential path for oil prices?
  • Long-Term: Does the 2020 demand shock have long term implications for peak oil demand? When will OPEC and its allies regain market ascendency?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 3

Roundtable on Critical Factors Driving Oil Markets

  • Some are saying COVID-19 changes everything. Does it really? Is commuting to work a thing of the past? Does this help/hurt electric vehicles? How about refinery/petrochemicals projects? Will companies/governments change energy strategies? What are other wildcards we need to consider?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 4

Middle East Refining Landscape

  • Latest view on refining projects under construction/planned.
  • How will the latest developments in the global oil market impact plans for new greenfield, integrated refining projects?
  • Middle East refining expansions and growing products exports: heading east or west?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 5

Middle East Crude & Products Trade

  • What are the prospects for Iraq’s upstream in terms of crude production and exports?
  • Outlook for Middle East oil demand: are low oil prices, subsidy policy changes, and COVID-19 disruptions shifting trends?
  • How are the region’s product balances likely to affect the region’s product trade outlook within its traditional markets?
  • An update on Iran’s latest situation, with particular focus on the impact of US sanctions.

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 6

Insight on Asia: Major Changes and Challenges

  • COVID-19 has wreaked havoc across the Asian market. When will demand recover to pre-pandemic levels?
  • Has the pandemic shifted the long-term demand trajectory as the market perceives?
  • Which countries and which products will lead demand growth? Any surprises ahead? What is happening on the EV front?
  • Who is building/expanding refineries and why? What is real and what is not? Have priorities shifted?
  • What are the most interesting developments/opportunities for refiners as they emerge from the COVID-19 crisis?
  • Regional drivers—highlights of key developments.

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 7

Deep Dive into Asia—Key Country Developments

    • China Brief
      • Outlook for oil products demand: With China effectively managing its COVID-19 crisis, what does the rebound look like? What is the long-term growth trajectory? Do EVs pose a threat?
      • Will China’s surplus refining capacity continue to grow?
      • What is the future of independent refineries? Will the widely- discussed Yulongdao project accelerate the re-consolidation of the Shandong refining sector?
      • What can we expect for product exports? What are the constraints? Are there any ceilings?
      • What are the real drivers behind China’s VLSFO supply?
    • Japan Brief
      • Impact of COVID-19 on demand, refinery runs, and product trade. How will these affect refiners’ future strategies?
      • In light of accelerating demand decline, will refinery closures be advanced?
      • Consolidation contributing to profit improvements for now, but what’s next?
    • India Brief
      • India’s oil demand growth: A tumultuous path ahead post COVID-19. Is the rosy long-term demand story still alive?
      • NOCs will bring two new greenfield refinery projects online post-2025. Will it be sufficient to meet the demand growth in the long term?
      • With massive escalation in cost, will the West Coast refinery project ever see the light? What are the constraints?
      • What are the private refiners’ views on the future of the refining business?
      • Will India turn into a net importer of products?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 8

West of Suez Refining & Products Trade: Implications for the Middle East

  • What has been the impact of COVID-19 on product supply/demand, refinery operations?
  • The status of refinery investment.
  • How will crude and product trade flows develop?
  • How will ME refiners be impacted by changes in the Atlantic Basin and the Asia Pacific?

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 9

Middle East: The Outlook for LPG and Condensate

  • From oversupply to undersupply, how are LPG buyers managing supplies in 2020?
  • What should Asian buyers plan for NGL procurement with tapering US NGL supplies in the 2024-2030 period?
  • What are the ramifications of LNG/Gas FID postponements of condensate splitter start-ups through the mid-2020s.

Speaker: T.B.C.

Session 10

Challenges and Opportunities

  • Where are the opportunities and who are the potential winners/ losers?
  • What are the key sensitivities and foreseeable surprises?

Speaker: T.B.C.

The organizers reserve the right to alter the content and timings of the agenda.

Speakers

Fereidun -Fesharaki -web
Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki

Chairman,
FGE


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Jeff -Brown -web
Dr. Jeff Brown

President,
FGE


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Iman-Nasseri-Web
Dr. Iman Nasseri

Managing Director - Middle East,
FGE London


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Gareth -web
Mr. Gareth Lewis-Davis   

Principal Consultant,
FGE London