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The Future of Feedstocks Study


FGE’s detailed assessment of the future paths, business models and opportunities for feedstocks over the next 30 years.

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Overview

As ever-more stringent fuel economy standards and rising electric vehicle penetration curb oil demand growth further, the hydrocarbon industry has shifted its focus to plastics demand and petrochemicals as the main source for demand growth in the future. With a rapidly emerging middle class from Jakarta to Lagos, from Mumbai to Sao Paulo, living standards are rising as well as the per capita consumption of plastics.

At the same time, we anticipate strong growth for polymers as light-weight, low-cost carbon-based materials are expected to underpin the energy transition, while COVID-19 has seen renewed vigour in demand for plastic packaging for hygiene purposes as well as PPE (personal protective equipment) for the fight against COVID.

However, the winds of change are not just limited to global fuel demand and greenhouse gas emissions as part of the Energy Transition. The environmental policy machine in certain countries is now focusing on a much broader strategy of reducing carbon waste in materials as well as fuels. The EU has led the charge, but regulation has followed in China and many other parts of the world.

Considering more stringent policies around recycling and adoption of new technologies and feedstocks, will this translate into slowing well-head feedstock demand growth? In our view, it will depend on a variety of factors including resin types, recycling industry economics, the pace of change for individual and corporate trends and most importantly, government policies. In this report we map out the future paths, business models and opportunities for feedstocks over the next 30 years.

 

Key Areas Addressed in this Study

  • Detailed mapping of supply trends, feedstock availability and regional pricing through the upcoming market cycles
  • A look at various policy frameworks, their evolution and the shifting consumer habits around sustainability in consumer cyclical products and packaging segments
  • Competitive positioning of the various petrochemical makers on the feedstock cost curve in the context of both economics as well as growing environmental requirements and trends
  • Investigation of new technologies and feedstocks, their economics and the potential impact on the industry
  • How existing and new business models around feedstock selection withstand the various changes over the next 20 years

Scope of Coverage

  • Structure
    • The Macro Pictures: The Petrochemical Industry Past & Current
    • The Energy Transition and Petrochemical Feedstock
    • The Rise of Recycling and the Impact on Feedstocks
    • The Changing Winds of Global Feedstock Trade and the Impact on Feedstocks
    • Competition on the Cost Curve
    • A Look at Current Corporate Strategies in this New World
  • Data
    • Feedstocks
      • Global supply/demand balances for ethane, propane, butane, paraffinic naphtha.
      • Price forecast out to 2035 for key feedstocks and feedstock grades (methane, ethane, propane, nC4/iC4/LVN/FRN/HFRN/HVN/Crude & Condensates by grade).
      • Petrochemical database – global olefins database.
    • Aromatics
      • Global supply/demand balances for PX, mixed aromatics.
      • Simple and integrated steam cracker margins by location.
      • Price forecast out to 2035 for key aromatics & feedstocks as well as key derivative products.
      • Petrochemical database – global aromatics database(splitter projects).
    • Olefins
      • Global supply/demand balances for ethylene, propylene and polymers.
      • Price forecast out to 2035 for key olefins prices.
      • Simple and integrated steam cracker margins by location.
      • Petrochemical database – global aromatics database.
      • Upcoming petrochemical projects (PDH, steamcracking, output slate based on feed flexibility).
    • Plastics
      • Sector specific demand for polymers.
      • Database of recycling targets by countries and supranational bodies.
      • Underlying data on composition of key energy transition“products” (NEVs, batteries, polymer solar panels)underlying projections for polymer demand.
      • Database of new projects and technologies by alternative feedstock.
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