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Global Naphtha Market Outlook


FGE's detailed assessment of the mid/long-term outlook for Naptha

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Overview

FGE’s detailed assessment of the mid/long-term outlook for naphtha sets the stage on fundamental shift occurring within the oil and gas markets going forward – the pivot from transportation fuels into petrochemicals amid the energy transition.

In this study, we forecast naphtha supply and demand globally using bottom-up modelling to explore impacts and trends for naphtha trade and pricing up to 2035.

The first half of 2020 saw the plummeting of crude prices to multi-year lows with US shale production impacted. With NGL supply growth stunted by the impact of low crude prices on upstream production and midstream companies shelving and delaying projects, how will the changing production profile of NGLs in the US impact the cost-curve for ethylene production going forward?

The 2020s will see radical shifts in the Atlantic Basin gasoline trade of products with refining capacity in the West African region touted to eradicate much of the oil product deficit in the African continent. These will undoubtedly impact gasoline blending margins and refining margins in the West of Suez.

In the East of Suez, we are seeing a radical growth in the deficit of naphtha, largely driven by capacity additions and expansions on olefins in the East Asian and South East Asian regions. With incremental refining capacities in the East through the 2020s largely integrated downstream with petrochemicals units, where will the incremental naphtha come from?

With a number of ethane and propane-fed olefins projects planned for start-up through the 2020s, how will balances for these feedstocks impact the cost curve for naphtha-fed crackers?  How will the pricing and trade of naphtha evolve through the next decade with a weaker pull from gasoline and a stronger pull from petrochemicals? 

 

Key Areas Addressed in this Study

  • Global supply, demand, import and export projections until 2040 for both West and East of Suez regions. Projections are disaggregated by region, country, port, as well as by grade.
  • Changing global trade flows of naphtha as a seaborne barrel with divergent dynamics for naphtha/gasoline in the East and West.
  • Trends in olefins and NGL feedstocks and the evolution of naphtha’s role as a cracker feedstock going forward.
  • Trends in refinery capacity, configurations and integrations (i.e., integrations downstream into gasoline/petrochemicals), and impacts on naphtha fraction.
  • Potential growth in NGL naphtha supply associated with US shale as well as gas/LNG and its impact on the naphtha trade.
  • Trends in aromatics, with due consideration of rapid growth of PX capacity in China, and how that would impact naphtha/gasoline dynamics.

Scope of Coverage

  • Structure
    • Part I: Introduction
    • Part II: Petrochemical Trends
    • Part III: Refining & Gasoline Trends
    • Part IV: East of Suez
    • Part V: West of Suez
  • Deliverables
    • PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout)
    • Presentation can be arranged under terms to be mutually agreed.
    • Naphtha specifications
    • Supporting Excel data file
      • Supply and Demand Balances by Region, Country and Naphtha Grade
      • Cracker Database
      • Aromatics (PX) Database
    • Three hours of consultation with FGE’s NGL team available per year for telephone/face-to-face/online discussions and/or email enquiries. 

     

 

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