FGE's detailed assessment of the mid/long-term operating environment for the global ethane trade. In this multi-client study, we forecast ethane demand and review likely incremental supplies to identify the most crucial factors at play in the rapidly evolving ethane market.
With US shale production recovering from impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and a new US President’s more restrictive stance on exploration and development of the Lower 42, what is the long-term viability of US ethane supply? With over 10 mmtpa of ethane cracking capacity in the pipeline in the US Gulf Coast and North East driving strong incremental ethane demand, how will US domestic and international pricing of ethane shift over time?
In addition to shifting dynamics in the US, upcoming projects in China, Belgium and Mexico are expected to pull an additional 3 to 4 mmtpa of US ethane by 2025. How will the economics of merchant ethane crackers fare with this massive uptick in ethane demand and limitations on supply? Will US production economics be able to support the global ethane trade through the 2020s and beyond?
If not, where might we see new potential for ethane exports outlets in the future e.g. the Middle East? In order to keep pace with this growth and trade, what does the Very Large Ethane Carriers (VLECs) orderbook look like?