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Global Ethane Market Outlook


FGE's detailed assessment of the mid/long-term operating environment for the global ethane trade. In this multi-client study, we forecast ethane demand and review likely incremental supplies to identify the most crucial factors at play in the rapidly evolving ethane market.

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Overview

FGE's detailed assessment of the mid/long-term operating environment for the global ethane trade. In this multi-client study, we forecast ethane demand and review likely incremental supplies to identify the most crucial factors at play in the rapidly evolving ethane market.

With US shale production recovering from impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and a new US President’s more restrictive stance on exploration and development of the Lower 42, what is the long-term viability of US ethane supply? With over 10 mmtpa of ethane cracking capacity in the pipeline in the US Gulf Coast and North East driving strong incremental ethane demand, how will US domestic and international pricing of ethane shift over time?

In addition to shifting dynamics in the US, upcoming projects in China, Belgium and Mexico are expected to pull an additional 3 to 4 mmtpa of US ethane by 2025. How will the economics of merchant ethane crackers fare with this massive uptick in ethane demand and limitations on supply? Will US production economics be able to support the global ethane trade through the 2020s and beyond?

If not, where might we see new potential for ethane exports outlets in the future e.g. the Middle East? In order to keep pace with this growth and trade, what does the Very Large Ethane Carriers (VLECs) orderbook look like?

Scope of Coverage

  • Key Areas Addressed in This Study
    • Global supply and demand projections until 2040 for both West and East of Suez regions at a country level.
    • The potential for new sources of ethane exports from Russia and the Middle East and additional demand outlets in Asia Pacific.
    • Ethane trade flows into Asia, Europe and Latin America from the US, with added focus on infrastructure (i.e., pipeline and export capacities) for managing flows.
    • On the demand side, we assess growth of import-dependent ethane demand and how that will match up against the availability of seaborne export supplies in the long-term.
    • Price competition of ethane as a cracker feedstock (vs. other feedstocks) with the rapid growth of steam cracker capacity in Asia Pacific, Middle East and North America.
    • Shipping economics of transporting US ethane to key demand markets in Asia.
  • Structure
    • Part I: Global Ethane Trade
      • Introduction and Concepts
      • Summary
      • Global Trade Flows
      • The Future of Ethane Trade
    • Part II: Ethane in the US
      • Production Outlook
      • Pipeline, Storage and Export Infrastructure
      • Ethane in Petrochemicals
      • Ethane Rejection & Exports
      • Pricing
    • Part III: Other Americas
      • Canada, Mexico, Brazil
      • Supply and Demand Fundamentals
    • Part IV: Europe
      • North Sea (UK & Norway) Supply
      • European trade flow and demand
    • Part V: Middle East
      • Iran, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia
      • Supply and Demand Fundamentals
    • Part VI: Asia Pacific
      • China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia
      • Supply and Demand Fundamentals
    • Part VII: Others
      • Oceania – Australia
      • Africa – Egypt
    • Part VIII: Petrochemical Trends
      • Trends of cracker feedstock dynamics
      • Cracking economics
      • Pricing and delivered costs
    • Part IX: Ethane Shipping
      • Introduction to Ethane Shipping
      • Current Fleet and Orderbook
      • Shipping Trade Routes
      • Bunkering

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