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Condensate Forecast to 2030


FGE's detailed assessment of the mid/long-term outlook for condensates. 

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Overview

FGE’s detailed assessment of the mid/long-term outlook for condensates provides comprehensive coverage on the key challenges facing the market today. In this study, we forecast condensate supply and demand globally using bottom-up modeling to explore impacts and trends for condensate trade and pricing up to 2030.

2020 was a year where the entire market was turned on its head – after the initial collapse in demand as governments frantically shut down their economies killing oil demand and forcing record production cuts. Strength at the top and bottom of the barrel re-emerged for oil products, while for monomer/polymer markets different market drivers saw olefins and aromatics heading in different directions.

During the height of the global lockdown, associated condensate supply from big LNG/gas producers kept pumping and we saw record low prices for certain grades struggling to clear in the market with vanishing feed demand both from refineries and petrochemical plants. But just as quickly as the demand disappeared, it re-emerged and without US or OPEC supplies, refiners were attracted to the large naphtha cut.

The coming year will be one to watch. On the demand side, a recovery is on the cards following the positive news around a vaccine. Will a recovery in transport fuel markets and petrochemical markets drive a tighter supply/demand East of Suez or will we see another round of large-scale petrochemical additions in China ruin hopes of a better year for integrated aromatics-focused splitters. On the supply side, geopolitics take center stage once again. Will we see the floodgates open for a wave of Iranian South Pars Condensate?

However quality and consistency issues remain for US grades with splitters struggling to deal with the residual component of EF grades as well as other contaminants.

And what about naphtha? Previously flexible splitters turned to heavy full range naphtha. A collapse in naphtha prices in 4Q 2019 has made this an attractive proposition. Is this something structural or just a blip on the radar?

Asian buyers find themselves in a quandary, and the IMO’s potential impact on crude/condensate doesn’t help matters. Do they continue to look to future supplies from the Middle East or do they look for alternative sources? Importantly, does this mean facing additional capital costs to make their splitters “future-proof” for the 2020s and ready for the future condensate supply landscape?

Outlook for 2021

  • We look at the various scenarios at play post the US election and the potential for returning South Pars Condensate.
  • Key drivers of splitter margins through 2021, from the refinery gate, to aromatics and olefins… what will drive condensate premia in 2021.
  • A quarterly outlook on how balances will evolve through 2021.

Beyond 2021

  • COVID-19s impact on upstream project startups. Who are the casualties and what does this means for 2025-2030 condensate supply?
  • Closures and additions, who will win the battle along the polyester supply chain in Asia and what does it mean for condensate.
  • A look at the new kids on the block – viability of condensate splitter projects in the East of Suez over the next 10 years
  • A look at the evolution of condensate balances through the 2020s and what it means for prices. 

Key Areas Addressed in this Study

  • Global demand and supply projections until 2035
  • Petrochemical trends
  • Condensate trade flows into Asia
  • US and West of Suez condensate outlook
  • Naphtha long term outlook
  • Condensate market dynamics
  • Middle East condensate outlook
  • Dynamics between crude, condensate, naphtha and petrochemicals.

Scope of Coverage

  • Structure
    • Introduction
    • Naphtha Trends
    • Asia Pacific
    • North Sea & Northwest Europe
    • Sub-Saharan Africa
    • North America
    • Datafile
    • Petrochemical Trends
    • Middle East
    • Oceania
    • Mediterranean
    • Former Soviet Union
    • Latin America & The Caribbean
  • Deliverables
    • PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout)
    • Presentation can be arranged under terms to be mutually agreed.
    • Supporting Excel data file

This Study will Add Value to

  • Oil Majors and Oil & Gas Companies New supply streams and increased availability of condensates from American basins to the global market will shift global slates and provide opportunities for refiners. The comprehensive report will benefit O&G companies seeking an outside perspective on the future economic environment of the international condensate trading market.
  • Oil Shipping and Storage Companies Who require an analysis of future global trade flows and an understanding of the changing condensate slates on logistical requirements in transportation and storage.
  • Petrochemical and Chemical Companies Supply-side developments in the NGLs space have significant impacts on the operating environments for petrochemicals and chemicals industries. The detailed coverage of supply-side market dynamics and projections will provide a comprehensive basis for assessing supply-risk going forward.
  • International/Governmental Organizations Seeking an independent non-political perspective on the lesser- known world of these ultra-light crudes and an understanding of condensate market dynamics on key downstream outlets, namely petrochemicals and refining.

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