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The Condensate Forecast: 2022 Edition

FGE's detailed assessment of the mid/long-term outlook for condensates. 

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FGE’s detailed assessment of the mid- to long-term outlook for condensates provides comprehensive coverage on the key challenges facing the market today. In this study, we forecast condensate supply and demand globally using bottom-up modelling to explore the impacts and trends for condensate trade and pricing up to 2040.

The year 2021 was touted as a year of recovery. However, there were many variables during the year that caused turbulence in global oil and petrochemical markets. The year began with Storm Uri in the USA, an event which kickstarted a chain reaction that was felt throughout global petrochemical markets in the months that followed.

Moving further into the year, we saw light distillates leading the barrel’s recovery as motorists in key markets took to the roads once more. By late 2021 gasoline demand had met or surpassed pre-COVID-19 levels in several regions. In addition, naphtha demand was strongly supported by continued growth in petrochemical demand as alternative feedstock LPG remained uneconomic to crack for most of the year. Meanwhile, in 4Q, power curtailments in China amid emission controls and energy shortages, coupled with several new local petrochemical start-ups, led to very mixed impacts across the petrochemical spectrum.

This year appears to be ending in the same way it started, with condensate differentials rising in line with the strength in light distillates and the wide backwardation in crude.

As always, the coming year will be one to watch. The next wave of large-scale petrochemical additions in China might be the last nail in the coffin for aromatics margins as we head towards the upcoming downcycle. On the supply side, the restart of US-Iran nuclear talks is taking front and centre stage. Meanwhile, concerns over the return of Iranian South Pars Condensate (SPC) volumes hang over the market. Will we see a new nuclear deal and the floodgates open for Iranian SPC?

Outlook for 2022

  • We will explore the impacts of the potential return of Iranian SPC to the market.
  • Key drivers of splitter margins through 2022, from the refinery gate to aromatics and olefins: What will drive condensate differentials in 2022?
  • A monthly outlook on the evolution of condensate balances in 2022.

Beyond 2022

  • A look at the new kids on the block – e.g. the viability of condensate splitter projects East of Suez over the next 10 years?
  • Opportunities for refiners – a surplus coinciding with light distillate strength.
  • A look at the evolution of condensate balances through the 2020s and what it means for prices.


Chart/Table Appendix

Key Areas Addressed in this Study

  • Global demand and supply projections until 2040
  • Petrochemical trends
  • Condensate trade flows into Asia
  • US and West of Suez condensate outlook
  • Naphtha long term outlook
  • Condensate market dynamics
  • Middle East condensate outlook
  • Dynamics between crude, condensate, naphtha and petrochemicals.

Scope of Coverage

  • Structure
    • Introduction
    • Naphtha Trends
    • Middle East
    • Oceania
    • Mediterranean
    • Former Soviet Union
    • Latin America & The Caribbean
    • Petrochemical Trends 
    • Asia Pacific
    • North Sea & Northwest Europe
    • Sub-Saharan Africa
    • North America
    • Datafile 
  • Deliverables
    • PDF copy of the report (PowerPoint layout)
    • Presentation can be arranged under terms to be mutually agreed.
    • Supporting Excel data file

This Study will Add Value to

  • Oil Majors and Oil & Gas Companies New supply streams and increased availability of condensates from American basins to the global market will shift global slates and provide opportunities for refiners. The comprehensive report will benefit O&G companies seeking an outside perspective on the future economic environment of the international condensate trading market.
  • Oil Shipping and Storage Companies Two sectors that require an analysis of future global trade flows and an understanding of the changing condensate slates on logistical requirements in transportation and storage.
  • Petrochemical and Chemical Companies Supply-side developments in the NGLs space have significant impacts on the operating environments for the petrochemical and chemicals industries. The report’s detailed coverage of supply-side market dynamics and projections will provide a comprehensive basis for assessing supply-risks going forward.
  • International/Governmental Organizations Seeking an independent non-political perspective on the lesser- known world of these ultra-light crudes and an understanding of condensate market dynamics on key downstream outlets, namely petrochemicals and refining.


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